The final survey of the Wisconsin recall from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Republican Gov. Scott Walker narrowly ahead — but it also gives Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett a narrow chance for an upset win, if Dems turn out to vote on Tuesday.
Walker has 50 percent support in the poll, to Barrett's 47 percent. The survey of 1,226 likely voters was conducted over the weekend on June 2 and June 3, and has a 2.8 percent margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from three weeks ago, which was also sponsored by Daily Kos, Walker led with 50 percent to Barrett's 45 percent.
PPP's Tom Jensen writes:
Barrett is actually winning independent voters by a 48-46 margin. The reason he continues to trail overall is that Republicans are more excited about voting in Tuesday's election than Democrats are. Our projected electorate voted for Barack Obama by only 7 points, even though he took the state by 14 in 2008. If the folks who turn out on Tuesday actually matched the 2008 electorate, Barrett would be ahead of Walker by a 50-49 margin. It's cliche but this is a race that really is going to completely come down to turnout.
The TPM Poll Average shows Walker with 50 percent, to Barrett's 47 percent.