PPP: Santorum Takes A Lead Nationally
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum hasn’t led a national poll all year, but now that we’re eight states into the primary (in which Santorum has won the majority of delegates in three of them) he’s finally done in it. Public Policy Polling (D) released their national GOP numbers showing Santorum in first with a huge 15 point lead, besting former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 38 - 23. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, fading in national polling, falls to 17 percent while Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) gets 13.
Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ he’s now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney.
The best thing Romney might have going for him right now is Gingrich’s continued presence in the race. If Gingrich dropped out 58% of his supporters say they would move to Santorum, while 22% would go to Romney and 17% to Paul. Santorum gets to 50% in the Newt free field to 28% for Romney and 15% for Paul.
But PPP also urged caution. As has been the case all year, the very conservative bloc of voters have caused the race to be extremely volatile as they look for an alternative to Romney. “It’s been an amazingly fast ascent to first place for Rick Santorum,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling in a release. “It’s important to keep in mind though that fewer than half of his voters are firmly committed to him. When he comes under attack in the coming days his lead could evaporate just as quickly as it was created.”
The PPP poll, in combination with a Fox News national poll show showed Santorum trending up, puts Santorum in the lead in our TPM Poll Average. That may change when Gallup releases its GOP race tracking poll data at 1 pm eastern, which hasn’t just Santorum moving up as fast, but his rise in national polling is clearly the trend.
Update, 1:08 p.m.: The new Gallup tracking numbers of the national GOP race did indeed bring our average down, but Santorum is within a mere .3 percent of Romney, 30.0 to 29.7.